Watch the video below to learn about the latest economic updates and market movements.
Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.
Patrick Flynn · ·
Watch the video below to learn about the latest economic updates and market movements.
Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.
Patrick Flynn · ·
In his third and possibly last Budget before the next federal election, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is counting on a new wave of spending to ensure Australia’s economic recovery maintains its momentum.
As expected, the focus is on jobs and major new spending on support for aged care, women and first-home buyers with some superannuation sweeteners for good measure.
With the emphasis on spending, balancing the Budget has been put on the back burner until employment and wages pick up.
This year’s Budget is based on a successful vaccine rollout which would allow Australia’s borders to open from mid-2022. The Treasurer says he expects all Australians who want to be vaccinated could have two doses by the end of the year.
So far, the economic outlook is better than anyone dared hope at the height of the pandemic just a year ago, but challenges remain.
Unemployment, at 5.6%, has already fallen below pre-pandemic levels and is expected to fall sharply to 5% by mid-2022. But wage growth remains stubbornly low, currently growing at rate of 1.25% and forecast to rise by just 1.5% next year. This is well below inflation which is forecast to rise 3.5% in 2020-21 and 1.75% in 2021-22.
The treasurer forecast a budget deficit of $161 billion this financial year (7.8% of GDP), $52.7 billion less than expected just six months ago, and $106.6 billion (5% of GDP) in 2021-22.
Net debt is forecast to increase to an eye-watering $617.5 billion (30% of GDP) by June this year before peaking at $920.4 billion four years from now.
The large improvement in the deficit has been underpinned by the stronger than expected economic recovery and booming iron ore prices. Iron ore prices have surged 44% this year to a record US$228 recently.i
The centrepiece of the Budget is a $17.7 billion commitment over five years to implement key recommendations of the Aged Care Royal Commission. This includes $7.8 billion to reform residential aged care and $6.5 billion for an immediate investment in an additional 80,000 Home Care Packages.
In other health-related initiatives, the Treasurer announced additional funding of $13.2 billion over the next four years for the National Disability Insurance Scheme, taking total funding to $122 billion.
And in recognition of the toll the pandemic has taken on the nation’s mental health, the Government will provide an extra $2.3 billion for mental health and suicide prevention services.
After criticism that last year’s Budget did not do enough to support women’s economic engagement, this Budget works hard to restore gender equity. The Women’s Budget Statement outlines total spending of $3.4 billion on women’s safety and economic security.
Funding initiatives include:
While childcare is of benefit to all parents, it is generally mothers who rely on affordable care to increase their working hours.
As widely touted, proposed changes to superannuation and support for first home buyers also have women in mind.
In a move that will benefit part-time workers who are largely women, the Treasurer announced he will scrap the requirement for workers to earn at least $450 a month before their employers are obliged to pay super.
The Government will also expand a scheme allowing retirees to make a one-off super contribution of up to $300,000 (or $600,000 per couple) when they downsize and sell their family home. The age requirement will be lowered from 65 to 60.
In addition, from 1 July 2022 the work test that currently applies to super contributions (when either making or receiving non-concessional or salary sacrificed contributions) made by people aged 67 to 74 will be abolished.
Despite opposition from within Coalition ranks, Superannuation Guarantee payments by employers will increase from the current 9.5% of earnings to 10% on 1 July and then gradually increase to 12% as originally legislated.
Housing affordability is on the agenda again as the property market booms. To help first home buyers and single parents get a foot on the housing ladder, the Government has announcediv:
In a move that will please cash-strapped pensioners, the Treasurer announced that the Pensions Loan scheme – a form of reverse mortgage offered by the Government – will allow people to withdraw a capped lump sum from 1 July 2022. Currently income must be taken as regular income, which makes it difficult to fund larger purchases or home maintenance.
Under the new rules, a single person will be able to withdraw up to the equivalent to 50% of the maximum Age Pension each year, currently around $12,385 a year ($18,670 for couples).
The Government will also introduce a No Negative Equity Guarantee which means the loan amount can never exceed the value of the home.
Approximately ten million Australians will avoid a drop in income of up to $1,080 next financial year, with the low-and-middle-income tax offset extended for another 12 months at a cost of $7.8 billion.
Anyone earning between $37,000 and $126,000 a year will receive some benefit, with people earning between $48,001 and $90,000 to receive the full offset of $1,080.
Taxable income | Offset |
$37,000 or less | $255 |
Between $37,001 and $48,000 | $255 plus 7.5 cents for every dollar above $37,000, up to a maximum of $1,080 |
Between $48,001 and $90,000 | $1,080 |
Between $90,001 and $126,000 | $1,080 minus 3 cents for every dollar of the amount above $90,000 |
Source: ATO
With companies warning of labour shortages while the nation’s borders are closed, the Government has been under pressure to do more to help unemployed Australians back into work.
So, the focus in this Budget is squarely on skills training with $6.4 billion on offer to increase workforce participation and help boost economic growth.
This includes a 12-month extension to the Government’s JobTrainer program to December 2022 and an additional 163,000 places. The Treasurer also announced funding of $2.7 billion for 170,000 new apprenticeships.
Job creation is also at the heart of an extra $15.2 billion in road and rail infrastructure projects, expected to create 30,000 jobs. This is on top of the existing 10-year $110 billion infrastructure spend announced previously.
With an election due by May 21 next year, this is as much an election Budget as a COVID-recovery one. Although another Budget could be squeezed in before an election, it would have to be brought forward from the normal time.
The Government will be hoping that it has done enough to provide funds where they are needed most to continue the job of economic recovery.
If you have any questions about any of the Budget measures and how you might take advantage of them, don’t hesitate to call.
Information in this article has been sourced from the Budget Speech 2021-22 and Federal Budget support documents.
It is important to note that the policies outlined in this publication are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change.
Patrick Flynn · ·
Just as we were recovering from the long drought and the worst bushfires on record, the global coronavirus pandemic took hold and changed everything.
Suddenly, simple things we took for granted, like going to the office or celebrating special occasions, were put on hold. While life is still not back to normal, Australia is in better shape financially than many people expected at the height of the economic shutdown.
Take superannuation. Far from being a wipe-out, the average superannuation growth fund is on track to finish 2020 with a positive return of 3 per cent.i But it’s been a wild ride along the way.
Australian Key Indices December 2020 | Share Markets (% change) Jan – Dec 2020 | ||
Economic growth* | -3.8% | Australia All Ordinaries | -1.45% |
RBA cash rate | 0.1% | US S&P 500 | 16.37% |
Inflation | 0.7% | Euro Stoxx 50 | -5.14% |
Unemployment | 6.8% | Shanghai Composite | 13.87% |
Consumer confidence | 112.00 | Japan Nikkei 225 | 16.01% |
* Year to September 30, 2020 Sources: RBA, Westpac Melbourne Institute, Trading Economics as at December 31
Globally, the US presidential election and Joe Biden’s victory removed a major element of uncertainty overhanging global markets. As did the UK finally signing a post-Brexit agreement on trade and other matters with the European Union just before Christmas. However, trade tensions with China remain an ongoing concern.
The pandemic dragged an already sluggish global economy into recession, and we were not immune. In Australia, drought, bushfires, storms and the health crisis took their toll as we entered recession in for the first time in 28 years.
The economy contracted 7 per cent in the June quarter alone, the biggest fall since World War II, before rebounding in the September quarter. Even so, in the year to September our economy contracted 3.8 per cent.ii
Final figures for 2020 are not in yet but an annual fall of 2.8 per cent is forecast, putting us in a better position than most developed nations.iii This is due in part to Australia’s relative success at containing COVID-19, and massive financial support from Federal and State Governments and the Reserve Bank.
After starting the year at 0.75 per cent, the official cash rate finished the year at an historic low of 0.1 per cent. The Reserve Bank has indicated it will keep the cash rate and 3-year government bond rate at this level for three years to encourage businesses to invest and individuals to spend.iv
It seems to be working. Consumer confidence bounced back to a decade high of 112 points in early December as Australia eased restrictions.v Business confidence also hit an almost three-year high in November, but unemployment remains at 6.8 per cent after peaking at 7.5 per cent.vi,vii
While low interest rates make life difficult for retirees and others who depend on income from bank deposits, they gave share and property markets a boost in 2020 as investors looked for higher returns than cash.
In February/March when the scale of the health and economic crisis became evident, sharemarkets plunged around 35 per cent. As borders and businesses closed and commodity prices collapsed, investors rushed for safe-haven investments such as bonds and gold.
But it soon became apparent that there were economic winners as well as losers, with global technology and health stocks the main beneficiaries.
By the end of 2020, US shares were up 16 per cent, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index up 48 per cent.viii
Closer to home, Australian All Ordinaries index was up 0.7 per cent, or 3.6 per cent when dividends are included. Some of the best performers were small tech stocks, which helps explain why the ASX200, which is top heavy with banks, resources and property trusts, fell 1.5 per cent.
Elsewhere, European markets were mostly lower reflecting their poor handling of the pandemic. While China and Japan performed strongly, up 14 per cent and 16 per cent respectively.
China’s economic rebound was another factor in the Australian market’s favour, with iron ore prices jumping 70 per cent.ix
Rising iron ore prices and a weaker US dollar pushed the Aussie dollar up 10 per cent to close the year at US77c.x
Gold prices hit a record high in August against a backdrop of ballooning government debt worldwide, but prices eased as sharemarkets surged, finishing 25 per cent higher at US$1,898.ix
At the other end of the scale, oil was one of the biggest losers as economic activity and transport ground to a halt. Oil prices fell more than 20 per cent despite OPEC producers restricting supply.ix
Despite dire predictions of a property market collapse earlier in the year, residential property values rose 3 per cent in 2020 and 6.6 per cent when rental income is included.xi
Melbourne was the only city to record a price fall (down 1.3 per cent), with combined capital cities up 2 per cent.
The real action though was in regional areas where average prices lifted 6.9 per cent. While regional markets lagged over the past decade, 2020 saw more Australians embrace working from home and the possibility of living outside crowded cities.
As 2021 gets underway, Australia is inching back to a new normal on growing optimism about the global rollout of vaccines to contain the spread of the coronavirus and allow more movement of people and goods.
Our economy is forecast to grow by 5 per cent this year, but there are bound to be bumps along the way, with the potential for new waves of the virus and ongoing trade tensions with China.xii
In the meantime, the Federal Government and Reserve Bank stand ready to continue stimulus measures to support jobs and the economy.
After the year that was, a return to something close to normal can’t come quick enough.
i https://www.chantwest.com.au/resources/november-surge-drives-funds-into-black-for-2020
ii https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/indicators
iii https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/2021Reports/January
vi https://business.nab.com.au/monthly-business-survey-november-2020-43972/
viii https://tradingeconomics.com/stocks
ix https://tradingeconomics.com/commodties
x https://tradingeconomics.com/currencies
xii https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp-growth-annual
Patrick Flynn · ·
In what has been billed as one of the most important budgets since the Great Depression, and the first since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic dragged Australia into its first recession in almost 30 years, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the next phase of the journey is to secure Australia’s future.
As expected, the focus is on job creation, tax cuts and targeted spending to get the economy over the COVID-19 hump.
The Treasurer said this Budget, which was delayed six months due to the pandemic, is “all about helping those who are out of a job get into a job and helping those who are in work, stay in work”.
After coming within a whisker of balancing the budget at the end of 2019, the Treasurer revealed the budget deficit is now projected to blow out to $213.7 billion this financial year, or 11 per cent of GDP, the biggest deficit in 75 years.
With official interest rates at a record low of 0.25 per cent, the Reserve Bank has little firepower left to stimulate the economy. That puts the onus on Government spending to get the economy moving, fortunately at extremely favourable borrowing rates. And that is just as well, because debt and deficit will be with us well into the decade.
The Government forecasts the deficit will fall to $66.9 billion by 2023-24. Net debt is expected to hit $703 billion this financial year, or 36 per cent of GDP, dwarfing the $85.3 billion debt last financial year. Debt is expected to peak at $966 billion, or 44 per cent of GDP, by June 2024.
The figures are eye-watering, but the Government is determined to do what it takes to keep Australians in jobs and grow our way out of recession.
So, what does the Budget mean for you, your family and your community?
With young people bearing the brunt of COVID-related job losses, the Government is pulling out all stops to get young people into jobs. Youth unemployment currently stands at 14.3 per cent, more than twice the overall jobless rate of 6.8 per cent.
As we transition away from the JobKeeper and JobSeeker subsidies, the Government announced more than $6 billion in new spending which it estimates will help create 450,000 jobs for young people.
“Having a job means more than earning an income,” Mr Frydenberg said.
Measures include:
In recognition that the pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on women’s employment, the Budget includes the promised “Women’s economic security statement” but the size of the support package may disappoint some.
Just over $240 million has been allocated to “create more opportunities and choices for women” in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) as well as male-dominated industries and business.
As part of its job creation strategy, the government also announced $14 billion in new and accelerated infrastructure projects since the onset of COVID.
The projects will be in all states and territories and include major road and rail projects, smaller shovel-ready road safety projects, as well as new water infrastructure such as dams, weirs and pipelines.
The construction industry will also be supported by the first home loan deposit scheme being extended to an extra 10,000 new or newly built homes in 2020-21. This scheme allows first home owners to buy with a deposit as low as 5 per cent and the Government will guaranteeing up to 15 per cent.
As widely tipped, the government will follow up last year’s tax cut by bringing forward stage two of its planned tax cuts and back date them to July 1 this year to give mostly low and middle-income taxpayers an immediate boost.
As the table below shows, the upper income threshold for the 19 per cent marginal tax rate will increase from $37,000 a year to $45,000 a year. The upper threshold for the 32.5 per cent tax bracket will increase from $90,000 to $120,000.
As a result, more than 11 million Australians will save between $87 and $2,745 this financial year. Couples will save up to $5,490.
Marginal tax rate* | Previous taxable income thresholds | New taxable income thresholds |
0% | $0-$18,200 | $0-$18,200 |
19% | $18,201-$37,000 | $18,201-$45,000 |
32.5% | $37,001-$90,000 | $45,001-$120,000 |
37% | $90,001-$180,000 | $120,001-$180,000 |
45% | More than $180,000 | More than $180,000 |
Low income tax offset (LITO) | Up to $445 | Up to $700 |
Low & middle income tax offset (LMITO) | Up to $1,080 | Up to $1,080** |
*Does not include Medicare Levy of 2%
**LMITO will only be available until the end of the 2020-21 income year.
You don’t need to do anything to receive the tax cuts. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) will automatically adjust the tax tables it applies to businesses and simply take less. It will also account for three months of taxes already paid from 1 July this year so workers can catch up on missed savings.
In another move that will help protect jobs in the hard-hit small business sector, business owners will also get tax relief through loss carry back provisions for struggling firms. This will allow them to claim back a rebate on tax they have previously paid until they get back on their feet.
Businesses with turnover of up to $5 billion a year will be able to write off the full value of any depreciable asset they buy before June 2022.
Around 2.5 million pensioners will get extra help to make up for the traditional September rise in the Age Pension not going ahead this year. However, self-funded retirees may feel they have been left out.
Age pensioners and as well as people on the disability support pension, Veterans pension, Commonwealth Seniors Health Card holders and recipients of Family Tax Benefit will receive two payments of $250 from December and from March.
This is in addition to two previous payments of $750 earlier this year.
After the terrible toll the pandemic has waged on aged care residents and the elderly, the Government will add 23,000 additional Home Care packages to allow senior Australians to remain in their home for as long as possible.
Funding for mental health and suicide prevention will also be increased by $5.7 billion this year, with a doubling of Medicare-funded places for psychological services.
Underperforming super funds are to be named and shamed with a new comparison tool called Your Super. This will allow super members to compare fees and returns.
All funds will be required to undergo an annual performance test from 2021 and underperforming funds will be banned from taking on new members unless they do better.
As the underlying Budget assumptions are based on finding a coronavirus vaccine sometime next year, Government projections for economic growth, jobs and debt are necessarily best estimates only.
Only time will tell if Budget spending and other incentives will be enough to encourage business to invest and employ, and to prevent the economy dipping further as JobKeeper and JobSeeker temporary support payments are wound back.
Another test will be whether the Budget initiatives help those most affected by the recession, notably young people and women.
The Government has said it is prepared to consider more spending to get the economy out of recession. The Treasurer will have another opportunity to fine tune his economic strategy fairly soon, with the next federal budget due in just seven months, in May 2021.
If you have any questions about any of the Budget measures and how they might impact your finances, don’t hesitate to contact us.
Information in this article has been sourced from the Budget Speech 2020-21 and Federal Budget support documents.
It is important to note that the policies outlined in this publication are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change.
Patrick Flynn · ·
After a year when even the best laid plans have been put on hold due to COVID-19, people who were planning to retire soon may be having second thoughts. You may be concerned about a drop in your super balance, insecure work, or an uncertain investment outlook.
Whatever your circumstances, a financial tune-up may be required to get your retirement plans back on track. You may even find you’re in better financial shape than you feared, but you won’t know until you do your sums.
The best place to start is to think about your future income needs.
Your retirement spending will depend on your lifestyle, if you are married or single, whether you own your home and where you want to live.
Maybe you want to holiday overseas every year while you are still physically active or buy a van and tour Australia. Do you want to eat out regularly, play golf, and lead an active social life; or are you a homebody who enjoys gardening, craftwork or pottering in the shed?
Also think about the cost of creature comforts, such as the ability to upgrade cars, computers and mobiles, buy nice clothes, enjoy good wine and pay for private health insurance.
It’s often suggested you will need around 70 per cent of your pre-retirement income to continue living in the manner to which you have become accustomed. That’s because it’s generally cheaper to live in retirement, with little or no tax to pay and (hopefully) no mortgage or rent.
To get you started, the ASFA Retirement Standard may be helpful. It provides sample budgets for different households and living standards.
As you can see in the table below, ASFA suggests singles aged 65 would need around $44,183 a year to live comfortably, while couples would need around $62,435.i Of course, comfort is different for everyone so you may wish to aim higher.
Modest lifestyle | Comfortable lifestyle | |||
Single | Couple | Single | Couple | |
Annual income | $28,220 | $40,719 | $44,183 | $62,435 |
Savings required at retirement | $70,000* | $70,000* | $545,000 | $640,000 |
Source: ASFA, as at March 2020. Assumes home ownership.
*The fact that these figures are the same reflects the impact of receiving the Age Pension.
To put these figures in perspective, the full Age Pension is currently around $24,550 a year for singles and $37,013 for couples. As you can see, this doesn’t stretch to ASFA’s modest budget, let alone a comfortable lifestyle, especially for retirees who are paying rent or still paying off a mortgage on top of other expenses.
Then there is the ‘known unknown’ of how long you will live. Today’s 65-year-olds can expect to live to an average age of around 85 years for men and 87 for women. Half will live longer than that, many into their 90s. The challenge is to ensure your money lasts the distance.
Once you have a rough idea what your ideal retirement will cost, you can work out if you have enough super and other savings to fund it.
Using the ASFA benchmark for a comfortable lifestyle, say you hope to retire at age 65 on annual income of $62,000 a year until age 85. Couples would need a lump sum of $640,000 and singles would need $545,000. This assumes you earn 6 per cent a year on your investments, draw down all your capital and receive a part Age Pension.
Add up your savings and investments inside and outside super. Subtract your debts, including outstanding loans and credit card bills, to arrive at your current net savings. Then work out how much you are likely to have by the time you hope to retire if you continue your current savings strategy.
There are many online calculators to help you estimate your retirement balance, such as the MoneySmart super calculator.
If you want to leave an inheritance for the kids or help them financially sooner rather than later, then you will need to factor this in. Do be aware though that there are limits to how much you can give away without affecting your Age Pension entitlements.
Under the Centrelink gifting rules, you are only permitted to give a maximum of $10,000 in one financial year and $30,000 over five financial years before the excess is counted towards your Age Pension assets and income tests.
If there’s a gap between your retirement dream and your financial reality, you still have choices.
If you have the means, you could make additional super contributions up to your concessional cap of $25,000 a year. You may also be able to make after-tax contributions of up to $100,000 a year or, subject to eligibility, $300,000 in any three-year period.
You might also consider delaying retirement which has the double advantage of allowing you to accumulate more savings and reduce the number of years you need to draw on them.
These are challenging times to be embarking on your retirement journey, but a little planning now could put you back in the driver’s seat.
Get in touch if you would like to discuss your retirement strategy.
i https://www.superannuation.asn.au/resources/retirement-standard